Michigan State
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
42  Leah O'Connor JR 19:41
52  Rachele Schulist FR 19:47
73  Katie Landwehr SO 19:53
83  Lindsay Clark SO 19:59
170  Megan Rodgers SR 20:17
175  Shelby Jackson FR 20:18
268  Angela Swain JR 20:32
287  Alexa Rumsey FR 20:35
319  Alexis Wiersma FR 20:40
335  Melanie Brender JR 20:42
473  Raquel Serna FR 20:54
National Rank #7 of 340
Great Lakes Region Rank #2 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.9%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Nationals


National Champion 4.7%
Top 5 at Nationals 33.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 67.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 98.2%


Regional Champion 35.7%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Leah O'Connor Rachele Schulist Katie Landwehr Lindsay Clark Megan Rodgers Shelby Jackson Angela Swain Alexa Rumsey Alexis Wiersma Melanie Brender Raquel Serna
Roy Griak Invitational 09/28 316 19:51 19:45 19:55 19:59 20:28 19:58 20:57 20:39 20:33 20:49
Michigan Intercollegiate Championships 10/11 1246
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 335 19:38 19:43 20:00 20:01 20:25 20:11 20:38 20:48 20:54
Big Ten Championships 11/03 362 19:42 20:08 19:49 19:57 20:11 20:21 20:21 20:28 20:35
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/15 334 19:37 19:44 19:59 20:01 20:11 20:29 20:32
NCAA Championship 11/23 321 19:41 19:45 19:46 19:57 20:15 20:36 20:30





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.9% 8.5 285 4.7 6.4 7.3 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.0 5.2 4.4 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.3 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.0 67 35.7 31.3 29.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Leah O'Connor 100.0% 44.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4
Rachele Schulist 99.9% 56.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7
Katie Landwehr 99.9% 69.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5
Lindsay Clark 99.9% 83.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2
Megan Rodgers 99.9% 133.3 0.0
Shelby Jackson 99.9% 135.8 0.0 0.0
Angela Swain 99.9% 175.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Leah O'Connor 5.5 8.4 9.4 9.7 9.5 8.5 8.2 8.0 6.4 5.9 5.4 3.7 4.0 2.8 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2
Rachele Schulist 8.1 4.1 4.9 5.4 6.2 6.8 7.0 6.8 7.8 7.0 5.9 6.3 4.8 4.8 3.7 4.2 3.1 2.8 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3
Katie Landwehr 11.6 0.8 2.1 2.8 3.0 4.3 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.8 6.0 6.6 5.2 4.8 4.6 3.6 3.3 2.7 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.7
Lindsay Clark 14.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.2 3.6 3.6 3.6 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.7 5.9 6.0 5.3 4.3 5.4 3.9 3.9 2.9 2.7 1.9 2.0
Megan Rodgers 25.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.7 4.7 5.1 5.0
Shelby Jackson 25.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.8 4.2 4.4 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.5
Angela Swain 36.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.6 2.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 35.7% 100.0% 35.7 35.7 1
2 31.3% 100.0% 31.3 31.3 2
3 29.3% 100.0% 28.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 29.3 3
4 3.3% 98.2% 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.2 4
5 0.4% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 5
6 0.0% 50.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 6
7 7
8 0.0% 0.0 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 99.9% 35.7 31.3 28.0 2.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 67.0 32.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Iowa State 100.0% 2.0 2.0
New Mexico 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 100.0% 3.0 3.0
Dartmouth 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Butler 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Washington 94.2% 1.0 0.9
San Francisco 91.9% 1.0 0.9
Cornell 80.6% 1.0 0.8
Syracuse 75.6% 2.0 1.5
Notre Dame 74.1% 1.0 0.7
Vanderbilt 73.9% 2.0 1.5
Indiana 70.1% 2.0 1.4
Texas A&M 56.7% 1.0 0.6
Penn State 54.0% 1.0 0.5
Harvard 37.3% 1.0 0.4
Wisconsin 35.7% 2.0 0.7
Arizona State 33.7% 2.0 0.7
Boston College 31.0% 1.0 0.3
Florida 29.1% 1.0 0.3
BYU 9.3% 1.0 0.1
Texas 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Duke 6.3% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 6.1% 2.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 4.8% 2.0 0.1
Columbia 1.5% 1.0 0.0
UC Davis 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Weber State 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Stony Brook 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Total 20.7
Minimum 11.0
Maximum 29.0